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14 First-Quarter Points Usually Means A Win

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Scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter vastly improves your chances of winning. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images.
Scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter vastly improves your chances of winning. Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images.

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick had to be feeling pretty good. Logan Ryan had just intercepted a pass and returned it 79 yards for a touchdown putting the Pats ahead 14-7 in the first quarter of their game last Sunday against the Jets. Considering that in the past 22 games where the Patriots had scored 14 or more points in the first quarter they had eventually won 21 of those games, you would assume Belichick and his team were well on their way to their sixth victory against one loss for the season.

Unfortunately, the end result was not a win. The Jets got back in the game, it went into overtime and the Patriots lost on a field goal.

Scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter of an NFL game has for the most part been a good omen for teams. Since 2000, there have been 491 times when a team has scored 14-plus points in the first quarter. Those teams have won 400, lost 90 and there was one tie. That's a winning percentage of .816. Do that in every game of a 16-game season and that will get you 13 or 14 wins, enough probably to host all of your playoff games.

The Green Bay Packers have had the most games since 2000 where they scored 14 or more points in the first quarter with 27. The Baltimore Ravens are the only team since 2000 to not lose a game when they scored 14-plus in the first quarter. They are 9-0.

Following is a look at each NFL team and how many games they played since 2000 where they scored 14 or more points in the first quarter. Their record in those games is also noted.

Team Games Record

Green Bay

27 23-4
Pittsburgh 25 21-4

New England

23 21-2
Philadelphia 23 21-2
San Diego 23 21-2
St. Louis 22 17-4-1
Atlanta 21 15-6
Seattle 21 18-3
Denver 20 17-3
New Orleans 19 15-4
Indianapolis 17 14-3
Tennessee 17 13-4
New York Giants 16 14-2
Buffalo 15 10-5
Cincinnati 15 14-1
Kansas City 15 14-1
Minnesota 15 14-1
New York Jets 15 12-3
Oakland 14 13-1
Carolina 12 9-3
Detroit 12 3-9
San Francisco 12 7-5
Chicago 11 10-1
Arizona 11 9-2
Houston 10 9-1
Tampa Bay 10 8-2
Dallas 9 8-1
Miami 9 5-4
Baltimore 9 9-0
Cleveland 8 6-2
Washington 8 6-2
Jacksonville 7 4-3

Teams this year are 12-3 (.800 winning percentage) if they scored 14-plus points in the first quarter. Dallas, New England and Oakland are the three teams that have lost games this season after scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter.