I typically make it a standing rule to steer clear of big rivalry games. You can throw all logic and statistical analysis out the window. (Except in the Michigan, Ohio State game. Michigan's going to lose big.)
The best bet is to pick between two teams that you know relatively well that have the smallest possible spread.
Buffalo and Bowling Green have played some barn-burners in the past, including a 40-34 overtime thriller that sent UB to its first and only MAC championship game.
Don't expect scores like that this year, however (1:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). Both teams boast solid defenses. Turnovers could mean the difference in this matchup and nobody causes more of them then Buffalo LB Khalil Mack. The Butkus Award finalist is the FBS all-time leader in forced fumbles.
Rivalry games: They're a real pain to pick, but man are they fun to watch.
Joe Jenkins improved to 3-3 against the spread on weekday games by picking Navy to cover 1.5 points over San Jose State. He's well aware that this is exactly what Vegas wants him to do...and that he's a sucker.