By Jake Ciely
Favorite/Best – Roddy White: You don't get much more consistent than Roddy White, and in a receiver, there's nothing better than that. Since 2007, White has ranked in the Top 10 at wide receiver in five of the six seasons, ranking 14th in the other. Can you say that about many other guys? I'm taking White with confidence in Round 3 if there aren't solid running back options available.
Underrated – Darren Sproles: Even in standard scoring leagues, Darren Sproles has put up RB14 numbers since moving to New Orleans. A 40th rank would place him at the tail-end of the third in most drafts, and while that seems high for Sproles in a non-PPR league, I think that's significant value. He's 30 this season, but he hasn't taken the beating that most traditional backs do. I'd feel fine with him as my RB2 or high-end flex.
Overrated – Larry Fitzgerald: Bet you thought I'd go with Rodgers, eh? I'm a Pitt graduate and I still think Larry Fitzgerald is overrated. His current rank puts him at the end of the second round in a 12-team league, and although he's got more talent than nearly every receiver in the league, he doesn't have the talent around him to succeed as a Top Five or Six wideout. Carson Palmer is an upgrade, but he's still not Kurt Warner. And the Cardinals offensive line is, well, atrocious. Consider this: Bruce Arians has yet to coach an offense that allows less than 44 sacks in a single season. The Cards allowed 57 last year. Carson Palmer isn't mobile. Do the math.
Harvin – He is undraftable / not worthy of a stash.
No. 5 Overall – I'll go with Jamaal Charles.
Favorite/Best – Roddy White: Consistency, thy name is Roddy White. I love that he just keeps plugging away 90-100 catches and eight touchdowns a year, but continues to get overlooked-even by his own teammate. I love seeing White available as a strong WR2, or even my top wideout if a go RB-RB to kick off a draft.
Underrated – Darren Sproles: With the caveat of PPR ONLY, Darren Sproles is vastly underrated in the fourth round. He's been pure PPR gold since arriving in New Orleans. In 2011, he was the fifth ranked running back, and last season ended up 13th, despite missing three full games. He should easily be an outstanding RB2 in all PPR leagues, and that means his ADP is two rounds late.
Overrated – Darren McFadden: I get the appeal. When the dude plays, he tends to be awesome. Also, the fact that the Raiders are returning to a scheme that better fits him adds to the allure. But he just can't stay on the field and the Raiders appear to have one of the thinnest rosters in the league. There's no way I'll spend a third rounder on this guy.
Harvin – I was lower than Harvin on almost anybody; had him as my 26th receiver. He has zero value in redraft leagues, but retains some nominal value in dynasty, but nothing more than a mid-round pick.
No. 5 Overall – C.J. Spiller
Favorite/Best – Demarco Murray: Love his situation and his maturity. Primed for a big year.
Underrated – Darren Sproles: In PPR leagues, I still see Sproles undervalued which seems crazy.
Overrated – Aaron Rodgers: This isn't about being the best QB in the game. This is about drafting a guy too high and I see Rodgers being taken way too high by lots of people.
Harvin – Today, I see him as WR #35 in a Redraft League. Just way too much uncertainty to take him much higher. (Editor’s Note: This was pre-surgery news.)
No. 5 Overall – I'm seeing Jamaal Charles as the #5 guy. Even with Reid, KC isn't getting the attention it deserves.
Favorite/Best – Stevan Ridley: Ridley finished 10th in standard formats last year and there have been enough changes in the New England passing game make your head spin. The Patriots have always geared their offense to their strengths, and unless a couple of receivers emerge, the strength of this offense is the run. Ridley should see plenty of work as the team's lead back.
Underrated – Darren Sproles: Sproles is a fringe RB1 in PPR formats, but even in standard formats, he's a bona fide RB2, so he holds early third round value even though his ADP is mired in the fourth round. Head coach Sean Payton lauded his ability in the running game as well as in the passing game, so now that Payton is back and involved in the offense, we could see Sproles' rushing attempts return to the 80-plus carries he saw in 2011.
Overrated – Cam Newton/Peyton Manning: Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't mind having either of these guys quarterbacking my team, but given all the depth at the position this season, there's no reason to reach into the third or fourth round to draft a second-tier quarterback, not when you can get someone like Russell Wilson or Tony Romo in the eighth or ninth round.
Harvin – In leagues with at least 18 roster spots and/or an IR slot, I might take Harvin in the final rounds as a stash, hoping that he returns for the fantasy playoffs.
No. 5 Overall – C.J. Spiller
Favorite/Best – Stevan Ridley: Ridley is the clear No. 1 back on a Patriots team that I believe will be turning to a more run-heavy attack this season. The offseason has seen the Patriots lose Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, and Rob Gronkowski's status remains up in the air. Even with Shane Vereen more involved, Ridley shouldn't have a problem repeating his 1200-12 line from 2012.
Underrated – Lamar Miller: Lamar Miller has the skill-set, and now he has the opportunity. The Dolphins appear intent on handing him the workhorse role, and Daniel Thomas is the only threat to his touches (read that as there isn't much of a threat). I like the direction the Dolphins offense is heading, with Ryan Tannehill now in his second season and Mike Wallace added to the mix. Miller is a Top 20 back with Top 10 upside.
Overrated – Randall Cobb: As much as I love the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense, I can't get behind taking Randall Cobb with a Top 40 pick in a 1/2/2/1 + FLEX format. Cobb could just as easily end up the third best fantasy WR on the Packers as first.
Harvin – I wouldn't draft Harvin except in the deepest of formats. If someone does draft Harvin in your league, they may very well drop him as BYEs & Injuries hit. After I clear my BYE week hurdles, I will re-evaluate the situation.
No. 5 Overall – I like CJ Spiller to rise to the occasion of an increased workload and have a huge year.
Favorite/Best – Randall Cobb: It's easy to like Cobb. A second round pick in the 2011 draft, Cobb made huge strides in his second season last year. He's a dynamic, athletic, smart player in a pass-friendly system playing with the best QB in the league. Cobb could easily crack the Top Five WR's this season, and as a dynasty asset, is one of the top players to own at the WR position.
Underrated – Cam Newton: There are a ton of good QB's on the market this year, more than in recent memory. While this abundance of talent at this position has deflated the value o the position overall, there remain a few names who can still be considered elite and worthy of consideration. In particular, those QB's who can both run and throw offer extra value. In most formats, Cam was a Top 10 overall player last season, and there's no reason to expect that to change. Barring injury, he's a lock to repeat that feat in 2013.
Overrated – Chris Johnson: Entering his sixth season, Johnson is talking about breaking 2,000 yards again this year. No way is that going to happen. Johnson has lost some of his hallmark lateral agility and is not quite the lethal fast weapon he was in 2009. When a speed back begins to slow, the drop-off can be more precipitous than it is for other backs. His offensive line was improved over the season but it still remains to be seen if they can open lanes for him. And the Titans simply are not going to be scoring a ton this year. He's still a good RB2, but a little overvalued at this spot.
Harvin – Percy Harvin's ranking on this list is obviously affected by his hip injury. He will undergo surgery to repair the torn labrum and is expected to miss extended time. Normal recovery from this type of surgery is about 12 to 16 weeks. While Harvin may not be a useful fantasy asset this season, history indicates players can make a full recovery from this type of injury. He makes a smart stash or buy low for dynasty and keeper leagues.
Lamar Miller is going to shine baby!