Fantasy Top 100: The Experts' Top 60-41
By Jake Ciely
We on to Part 3 of the Fantasy Football 100. Last week, we saw a clear favorite for the underrated player of the group. As we cross the midway mark, will we see the same? All I know is that we’re into the Top 50, which means the names are bigger, stakes are higher and the polarizing picks are more frequent.
Favorite/Best & Underrated – Torrey Smith: As stated in a certain ADP value article, Torrey Smith is perhaps the most criminally underrated player in fantasy football. He ascends to the top of the Ravens depth chart at receiver, set to explode in his third season in the league. He should garner far more than the 104 targets he got last year, when he caught eight touchdowns. He is being drafted as a borderline WR2, which makes him and his potential Top 10 output a great value. (Marques Colston might be my choice for "underrated" here if I didn't like Smith so much.)
Overrated – Wes Welker: There is no drop-off from Tom Brady to Peyton Manning, but does that mean Wes Welker will enjoy similar success in Denver? The diminutive receiver depends on high volume for fantasy success, which could be a problem going forward. The Broncos are sure to get him the ball plenty, but Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will command plenty of targets. It would be a surprise if Welker stepped in and got 150-plus targets like he has enjoyed in New England, given Thomas led the team last year with 138.
Favorite/Best – Russell Wilson: Incredible work ethic, accurate arm, versatile package, dashing looks, Percy (expletive) Harvin – what’s there not to like about Wilson? Recall from Weeks 8-17, he averaged a robust 25.3 fantasy points per game, which ranked Top Three among passers during that stretch. With a year under his belt and adding the most dynamic slot machine in the game, he should churn out a high-end QB1 line. At this point in the unveiling, he’s a stupid-good value.
Underrated – Le’Veon Bell: Admittedly, I often fantasize about frolicking with Bell hand-in-hand through a field of daisies. The rookie is dreamy. He won’t blow away opponents, but equipped with above average wiggle, pass-blocking skills, hands and interior toughness, he’s a workhorse from a bygone era. Pittsburgh’s offensive line remains a question mark, but without much competition for carries, he’s destined for 300-plus touches. Sorry Montee Ball/Eddie Lacy enthusiasts, Bell will be the most sought after first-year rusher this season. Count on 1,300-plus total yards with 8-10 TDs.
Overrated – Jason Witten: Assuming this exercise centers on non-PPR, the ‘Boy isn’t Top 50 worthy. He’s consistently fantastic in receptions and yards, but he’s never reached double-digit TDs in a season. Worst yet, since 2008, he’s crossed the chalk six-plus times only once. Bill Callahan’s increased emphasis on the run seals Witten’s 3-5 TD fate for 2013. He’s the poster boy of why waiting on tight end is the smart money move.
Favorite/Best – Jordy Nelson: Nelson is slowly creeping up my draft boards this preseason. He had a bit of a lost 2012 so we've forgotten about his amazing 2011. Rodgers loves him and as long as he is healthy he'll have a big year.
Underrated – Danny Amendola: I'd say Danny Amendola is being a bit underrated this season due to some pretty freak injuries in his past. Will lightning strike a third time for him? Of course it could, but Calvin Johnson could go down with an injury week one. This game is dangerous and predicting injuries is a tough profession. Oh and Belichick and Brady.
Overrated – David Wilson: I'm starting to think David Wilson is a bit overrated. He has a ton of ability, but it's just yet to be seen how much work he's going to consistently get and with that knowledge coupled with the knowledge that Andre Brown should get goal line carries, he's a bit too risky for me there.
Favorite/Best – Matt Ryan: My favorite player in this group has to be Matt Ryan, even though I am still in the “wait on quarterbacks” camp. This guy might have the best 1-2 receiving punch, in Julio Jones and Roddy White the best 1-2-3 punch, with Gonzalez, and the best 1-2-3-4 receiving punch when you add Steven Jackson.
Underrated – Ryan Mathews: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but – Ryan Mathews is a bit underrated here. Last season was supposed to be his breakout, but his Styrofoam clavicles ruined everything. Not a huge fan of his offensive line, but if he can stay healthy, and you get him as an RB2 in Round 4 or 5, that means you loaded up on two star wide receivers, or a star at each position. There are several cases of a talented running back needing a few seasons before dominating, including Garrison Hearst. I just wish Mathews had two t’s in his last name. It bugs me.
Overrated – Russell Wilson: Writers are recommending taking Russell Wilson, a guy no one banked on 12 months ago, with a pick in Round 5? That’s kooky talk. He’s a second-year quarterback with a new star wide receiver to mesh with. I still like the guy, just not this much. Sophomores coming off successful rookie seasons often struggle after a full offseason of backslapping and free drinks everywhere he goes.
Favorite/Best – Danny Amendola: I have Brady and Amendola some 10 spots higher in my rankings. I believe both are a value here -- but I seriously doubt Amendola winds up being much of a value in drafts. He is more likely to be overrated. For the purposes of this exercise, he rates as a relative bargain, though.
Underrated – Torrey Smith: Smith is also 10 spots higher on my board, and I can see the masses not quite liking him as much as I do. This is a third-year receiver who is going to be the primary outside target for the first time in his career. He has the ability to explode into a fantasy star.
Overrated – Le’Veon Bell: I have Le'Veon Bell some 20 spots lower than this list does. Yes, he can be a breakout candidate, but he still needs to win a starting job in training camp, and the Steelers need to prove to be better at running the football. I am not convinced their issues with the running game aren't on the offensive line's play versus the play of the backs. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman are veterans and the Steelers don't generally hand their offense over to a rookie right away. I need to see more of Bell in the preseason for him to be justified in the Top 60 picks of drafts.
Favorite/Best – Chris Ivory: I'm very intrigued by Ivory's fit with the Jets. Rex Ryan's defense will continue to play stout and feed the offense chances, and Ivory is the Jets' best offensive weapon. Health is a definite concern, but the Jets' 2013 outlook will depend in large part on Ivory. And I think the Jets realize that. They'll lean on him heavily when healthy, and he's capable of racking up yardage and touchdowns with a ferocious, violent running style behind what I see as an underrated offensive line.
Underrated – Danny Amendola: The Patriots lost so many 'weapons' in the offseason that they'll almost be forced to pepper Amendola with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the pass game. Amendola possesses similar quick-twitch ability to Wes Welker in the slot, and is more dangerous at the second level. Amendola's health is always a concern, but I'd be willing to consider him as early as Round 3 of fantasy drafts because he'll score like a WR1 whenever he dresses, offering big weekly upside.
Overrated – Reggie Wayne: Fantasy football owners have an almost-unfailing tendency to draft players based on last year's stats. Last year's stats suggest Wayne will be a borderline WR1 and consistent week-to-week high scorer. Unfortunately for Wayne, the Indianapolis offense is changing this year with intentions of becoming more balanced and less reliant on its aging "No. 1" receiver with two-tight end sets, Ahmad Bradshaw, and upgrades to the offensive line. I expect Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, and T.Y. Hilton's production to rise while Wayne's falls.
Favorite/Best – Le'Veon Bell: I'm happy to see the consensus has Bell going ahead of Montee Ball. Bell has the chance to work on all three downs, and he should be the best rookie running back this season if he stays healthy. He's not an elite talent, but he does have an elite opportunity. He's No. 39 for me, and I'm happy to draft him with a fourth-round pick.
Underrated – David Wilson: I have him at No. 28 on my list, and there's no way he's lasting until Round 4 if he stays healthy in the preseason. His ADP on CBSSports.com is No. 32, and that's a closer representation of where he should go. I'm sure some people are skeptical of him with Andre Brown in the mix, but he's definitely worth the upside of taking in Round 3.
Overrated – Mike Wallace: He's No. 90 for me, and I consider him a bust this season. There's a downgrade in quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Ryan Tannehill, and his numbers the past couple of seasons don't indicate an elite Fantasy option. He's a nice deep threat and will add a needed dimension to this Dolphins offense, but he's just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver that you can definitely wait on after Round 5.
Favorite/Best – Russell Wilson: My favorite of this bunch is pretty easy; I love Russell Wilson for 2013 and beyond. Using Pro Football Focus' player rating system, Russell tied Peyton Manning for best quarterback play on a per week average. They both averaged a 3.69 QB rating over the last eight games. In that same time frame, here are the scores from some other prominent quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers - 2.64, Cam Newton -1.99, Matt Ryan - 1.53, Colin Kaepernick - 1.43, Robert Griffin III - 1.35 and Andrew Luck - 0.08. The fact that the rookie played at that high a level in his first season is amazing to me.
Underrated – Wes Welker: I would say that the most underrated of this bunch is Wes Welker. While I don't believe he is a 100-reception receiver in this offense this year, some of the numbers I have seen for him are definitely falling too far. Denver now has three very good receivers and all three of them will have good season, but my bet is still on Welker to get close to 90 receptions and drop to about 1,100 yards. Those are still solid numbers.
Overrated – Ryan Mathews: The most overrated is of course Ryan Mathews. Mathews is coming off a truly unique season, unfortunately the uniqueness was mostly due to two broken clavicles. His one whole touchdown and 3.84 yards-per-carry average were just icing on the cake. Now he will be relegated to being a two-down back with the acquisition of Danny Woodhead. Woodhead is a better blocker and has much better ball control. Don't count on Mathews as anything more than a low end RB3.
Favorite/Best – Chris Ivory: As I've said many times, watching Chris Ivory makes me want to run through a brick wall. I'm excited to see what he can do as the lead back in New York, and barring injury, he should have a successful campaign. I worry about his health, of course, but Ivory is the guy for the Jets, and I think they'll ride him this season.
Underrated – Marques Colston: Colston is a virtual lock to snag 75 balls for 1,000 yards and 8-10 scores. Why wouldn't you want that in a wideout? Considering his fourth- to fifth-round ADP, I like Colston as a value pick this season. Other than the elite guys at the position, there's probably no better lock at wideout.
Overrated – David Wilson: The roller coaster relationship I've had with David Wilson over the offseason is unmatched. Tomorrow I'll probably like him, but I'd have a hard time selecting him above a true three-down back. Even Ivory - who will probably sit on third down - is more appealing to me. Andre Brown was incredibly efficient last season, and I'm afraid that as soon as Wilson slips, Brown will be the guy. Coughlin has already said he'll go with the hot hand, and that ambiguity and subjectivity is going to force me away from Wilson at draft time.
Favorite/Best – Le'Veon Bell: Feels like the perfect fit for the Steelers. In today's NFL, running backs are about opportunity meeting talent and Bell's in a great spot for both.
Underrated – Danny Amendola: For some of the same reasons I'm not as excited about Welker, I'm stoked about Amendola. Depending on Rob Gronkowski's status, the Patriots are looking for receivers to lean on. Amendola's surely has to prove he can stay healthy, but I love his situation.
Overrated – Wes Welker: Welker's a fine player and obviously, Peyton Manning's a great QB, but while the offense should be fantastic, Welker's going to have much more competition for receptions than he had in New England.
Favorite/Best – Jordy Nelson: Nelson finished No. 30 in total fantasy points in 2012, but he was No. 17 on a per game basis, and that included two one-target games in Week 9 and Week 13. With Greg Jennings gone, Nelson should see plenty of snaps in 2013. Prior to his injury in Week 7 of last season, Nelson had averaged 4.4-73-.80 in his previous 25 games. Those are Top Five numbers, though I'm expecting fringe WR1 numbers due to the other mouths to feed -- Randall Cobb, James Jones & Jermichael Finley -- in the Packer receiving corps.
Underrated – Chris Ivory: Like Michael Turner, LaMont Jordan and Chester Taylor before him, the 25-year-old Ivory is one of those running backs that the fantasy community has been hoping would get an opportunity to start, and now he'll get his chance. He was limited to 27 games in four college seasons due to injury, and was signed by the Saints as an undrafted free agent in 2010. He has averaged 5.1 YPC in his career, though he has struggled with injuries in the NFL as well. In his rookie season, due to injuries to Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, Ivory got a few starts and had some success. In 13 career games where he has received at least 10 touches, he's averaged 78 total yards, 0.38 TD and an impressive 5.2 YPC. That production equates to No. 16 RB-type numbers. New Orleans did not throw the ball his way very often -- he has just three catches in his career -- but he did score on a 76-yard swing pass in preseason of his rookie year so he has some pass-catching ability. If he is a two-down back, he should be a solid RB2. If he starts catching passes, watch out.
Overrated – David Wilson: GM Jerry Reese said that Wilson could be a "lead back," but didn't anoint him the starter in 2013. Andre Brown figures to get all of the goal line work and may eat into Wilson's touches in the Giants' base offense as well. There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Wilson's explosiveness, but don't forget that Brown averaged more YPC (5.3) than did Wilson (5.0), and Wilson is still learning how to pass protect. It's no sure thing that Wilson leads the team in touches in 2013, though Brown's injury history also makes him difficult to trust.
Favorite/Best – Chris Ivory: Ivory steps into a situation with the Jets that handed Shonn Greene nearly 300 touches in 2012, as he performed like an RB2 over the course of the season. Ivory managed a full yard and a half better per carry on limited touches in 2012 and should have every opportunity to be Rex Ryan's bell cow in 2013.
Underrated – Montee Ball: Nevermind that Ronnie Hillman is running ahead of Ball at the moment. Ball should win over early-down work early into the season, and in a Peyton Manning offense that likes to run when they get in close, 10 TDs seems like a lock. His upside is as an every down back in a prolific offense, provided he can pick things and up isn't miserable in pass protection.
Overrated – Danny Amendola: I wouldn't mind Amendola in this spot in PPR formats, but in this standard scoring format, Amendola simply isn't worth a Top 60 pick. Not even close.
Favorite/Best & Underrated – Russell Wilson: Judging quarterback value in combined rankings or player lists is always a challenging endeavor when it comes to fantasy football. Much depends upon league scoring, how your league mates value QBs, and your overall approach to QBs on your team. So when I say Russell Wilson is undervalued, I don't necessarily have an issue with him being listed 58th. But relative to other QB's I do think he deserves to be higher. In a redraft league, I'd take him over the likes of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan in a heartbeat.
I believe Wilson has a good shot at finishing as a Top Three or Four fantasy quarterback this season. He's added a powerful weapon to his arsenal in Percy Harvin. He has a full year under his belt preparing as the undisputed starting quarterback. Coach Carroll has had a whole offseason to better game plan on how to tailor the offense to Wilson's talents. This Seahawks offense is going to be potent.
Leading the way will be Wilson - a smart, hard working, athletic, uber-competitive quarterback. Not to mention an all-round nice guy. Just last week my son was asking me to name my favorite NFL player. He was expecting me to name a player from the Chargers, my hometown team. But after a moment’s thought, I had to give the nod to Wilson. There are few other players whose story, leadership and admirable personal qualities make them stand out like Wilson. Which is why he's my favorite player in the entire NFL this year.
Overrated – Chris Ivory: For me on this list, it was a tough choice between Ball, Bell, Ivory and Nelson. A case can be made for each of them being overvalued. In the end, I know this will probably be bucking the trend a bit, but I'm just not sold on Ivory. He has some solid skills, to be sure. But he has yet to prove he can remain healthy in a starting role in the NFL, and he happens to be playing on what might be the worst offense in the NFL. The Jets are a train wreck, and a slow motion one at that. Teams are going to shut the running game own and dare the anemic passing game to beat them. And I don't see any combination of Sanchez/Smith/Holmes/Hill/Gates etc. being up for the challenge. It's going to be a long season for Ivory and especially for Jets fans.
Favorite/Best – Danny Amendola: Wes Welker went from a 67-687-1 line in Miami to leading the league with 112 catches in his first Patriots season. That was with Randy Moss starting on the other side. Amendola joins a Pats team that lost four of its Top Five in receptions from last season. And the lone returnee among that group -- Rob Gronkowski -- is coming off back surgery. Why can't Amendola aim for 100-plus catches right away? Injury concerns? Psh. I get that he plays recklessly, but elbow and clavicle injuries are freak-type incidents, not indicators of recurring issues.
Underrated – David Wilson: Let me put it this way: Don't count on landing Wilson with the 41st pick in your draft. According to FF Calculator, he's coming off the board 32nd overall, with a 3.08 ADP. Even that sits higher than where I'm typically seeing him go. Somewhere in the second half of Round 3 is probably where the second-year Giant belongs. The upside is immense but comes with plenty of risk. I'm not especially high on him, but I'm also not avoiding him. All I'm saying here is that if you target Wilson in early Round 4, you ain't gettin' him. (Also, I didn't want to just repeat Amendola.)
Overrated – Tom Brady: Don't take Tom Brady near the fourth round of your draft. He has lost Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead -- four of his Top Five in catches from last year. Gronk is no guarantee to bounce back from surgery, especially early in the year. New England still boasts plenty of offensive talent, but it now resides more readily in the backfield. Don't be surprised if the Pats keep it on the ground more this year. Several other QBs already listed bring more 2013 upside and more attractive ADPs.
Favorite/Best & Underrated – David Wilson: Wilson is an excellent target around the second-to-third round turn. I realize there is a ton of risk for a guy who is struggling with pass protection and has very little pro experience, but he was a first round pick one year ago for a reason. Wilson has explosive speed and play-making ability, which we saw in action when he averaged five yards per carry on 71 rookie-season carries. Additionally, Wilson scored four touchdowns despite seeing only one carry inside the five-yard line. He scored from distances of six, 14, 40, and 52 yards out. Consider that Arian Foster's longest touchdown of 2013 was 14 yards. Wilson is primed for a breakout sophomore season.
Overrated – Matt Ryan: Sticking with my theme of tearing apart quarterbacks, Ryan is my most-overrated player in the 41-to-60 range. It's not that I don't like Ryan (he's my No. 7 ranked quarterback), but he happens to sit in the top spot of what is a very deep third quarterback tier. Instead of spending a fifth-round pick on Ryan, why not wait and grab Matthew Stafford or Colin Kaepernick in the sixth? Or how about Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, or Andrew Luck in the seventh? Tony Romo -- fantasy's No. 7 quarterback in 2012 -- is available in the eighth round of many drafts. Ryan will make for a solid fantasy quarterback this season, but there's no reason to reach for him in the fifth round when the position is so deep.
Favorite/Best – Wes Welker: There may be too much talent at the skill positions in Denver for everyone to have their best seasons, but I still think Wes Welker is falling too far in drafts. Manning does not have an extensive track record with an exclusive slot receiver like Welker, but he did manage to get Austin Collie 58 receptions, 649 yards, and eight touchdowns in half a season in 2010 before Collie got hurt. Off a 118-1354-6 season, Welker has room to decline and remain a productive WR2.
Underrated – Reggie Wayne: Wayne had 179 targets in 2012, third most in the league. He was held hostage by a terrible quarterback in 2011, and even then, he managed 75-960-4. In the seven most recent seasons apart from 2011, Wayne has at least 82 receptions, 1,055 yards, and five touchdowns. I'm unsure if owners are bored of Wayne or just trying to guess when he'll decline.
Overrated – Torrey Smith: Without Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith will be the clear No. 1 receiver for the Ravens this season. However, I'm skeptical the Ravens will target him like a No. 1 receiver in fantasy. Smith saw 104 targets last season, which were fewer than 30 other receivers in that category. Meanwhile, his 18.6-yard average depth of target was the second highest in the league. Unless Smith starts to run different kinds of routes, he will remain an inconsistent week-to-week option.
Favorite/Best – Jason Witten: Witten is a CONSISTENT Top Five TE and has hit No. 1 and No. 2 plenty of times in his career. A PPR master, he is still one of Romo's favorite targets and I don't buy the talk of more running by the Cowboys. Witten will be a Top 5 PPR TE once again, so might as well take him in the fourth round.
Underrated – Chris Ivory: The Jets have one of the easiest schedules against the run and seem to LOVE the talent of Chris Ivory. If he stays healthy, 300-plus carries could be in his wheelhouse. He could definitely be a useable RB2 just based on volume but seems to be going much later than that at this point.
Overrated – Ryan Mathews: 56? Really? There are plenty of guys on this list I don't love including Montee Ball, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, and Torrey Smith, but Ryan Mathews takes the cake. He hasn't played a full season of football since his junior year OF HIGH SCHOOL. Don't count on it this year. Even in the game, the Chargers have a terrible offensive line and not many weapons to keep defenses honest. I just PASS.
Favorite/Best – Chris Ivory: In a non-PPR format, Ivory's value is not dinged nearly as much by his lack of involvement in the passing game. Shonn Greene turned this role into solid RB2 numbers last year, and Ivory is much more talented than Greene. If Ivory can stay healthy this year, he'll be one of the steals of non-PPR drafts in the fifth round or later.
Underrated – Russell Wilson: Wilson was a Top Three QB in the second half of the 2012 season, and that was without Percy Harvin. The Seahawks have taken the shackles off of him, and Wilson should be ready to raise the bar another level this season. I don't like taking a quarterback until at least eight or nine are off of the board, but I may make an exception for Wilson if he is still there in the late fifth round.
Overrated – Ryan Mathews: It's time to give up the ghost on Mathews. The new regime has no investment in him, and they brought in passing down specialist Danny Woodhead to create a true committee. Mathews may have a few big games if he can stay healthy and the Chargers piecemeal offensive line holds up, but he is just getting by on reputation at this point - a reputation that he never really earned with consistent production on the field.
Tony Holm Fantasy Sharks
Favorite/Best – Tom Brady: Brady has been sinking in drafts because most are now concerned that he may not have anyone worth their salt to throw the ball to. It's understandable but Tom Brady has always made his receivers better and not the other way around. Shorting Brady, the Patriots or Bill Belichick somehow seems foolish.
Underrated – Chris Ivory: Ivory is the new cog in the Jets backfield. Ivory is a hard runner that has the luxury of running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. With the quarterback woes of the Jets, you can expect Ivory to be utilized with as much as he can handle.
Overrated – Le'Veon Bell: Bell may have a terrific career in the NFL but rookies, particularly rookies with competition in a scheme that most recently tends to like to rotate through their running backs, have an uphill road from the opening bell.
Favorite/Best – Chris Ivory (4), Russell Wilson (2), David Wilson (2), Danny Amendola (2), Le’Veon Bell (2).
Clear leader here, as Ivory ran away (see what I did there) with the Favorite/Best vote. There is a lot to like with Ivory with the Jets, especially with his success in his brief opportunities. However, a word of caution, we haven’t seen Ivory over a full season – both lack of opportunity and health – and the Jets offense looks to be one of the worst in the league. I have Ivory as my 24th RB, which has his overall rank right in line. Both Wilson’s check in with two votes. While I think Russell has a fair rank (mostly because I always wait on QBs), I think David is a bit underrated. I doubt Andre Brown has the level of TD success he had last year (eight in eight games where he had a carry), and Wilson is one of the league’s most explosive running backs. Amendola is a reasonable choice given the upside in the Patriots offense and lack of other options. Bell is slightly high for me, as I’d rather have Ivory and Ball, but we’re still in the same ballpark… err, stadium.
Underrated – David Wilson (3), Danny Amendola (3), Chris Ivory (2), Russell Wilson (2), Torrey Smith (2).
David Wilson, not Russell, checks in as the most popular underrated pick, albeit barely. It appears both Wilson’s have plenty of support among the experts. Amendola ties David Wilson, and Ivory does the same with Russell Wilson. If you add up the Favorite/Best and Underrated votes, we have Ivory (6), Amendola (5), Wilson – David version (5) and Wilson – Russell style (4). Torrey Smith is the only multi-pick player not in the first list. He may be the second most polarizing player in the 60-41 group after David Wilson. Opportunity does not automatically equal production. Yes, Smith is the No. 1 option in Baltimore, but is he talented enough to handle that role, especially with no real second option – Dennis Pitta is easily the second best “receiver” on this team. I’m not certain Smith is a true No. 1, similar to his former teammate Anquan Boldin, who was always on that fringe No. 1/2 level.
Overrated – David Wilson (3), Wes Welker (2), Le’Veon Bell (2), Ryan Mathews (2).
As I mentioned, David Wilson is the player who has experts split this time around. You know which side I fall on, but I will admit, there is plenty of risk involved. Bell is another player who some love and some hate at this ranking, but we’ve touched on him already. The last two, Welker and Mathews, couldn’t be more different. On the one hand, Mathews isn’t much of a surprise, as the glass-made back might get hurt just suiting up. The talent level is still there, and if Mathews is sitting there in Round 6, I might bite. Round 5? That depends. I was surprised by Welker, but more because I thought I was in the minority. I have Welker as my 24th WR and just on the fringe of the Top 60. I know it’s cliché, but those are around for a reason, and in this case, the cliché “there is only one ball to go around” is all too true. Demaryius Thomas is the clear No. 1, and Eric Decker will get his. Don’t forget the solid group of backs led by rookie Montee Ball. I just don’t see Welker replicating his Patriots target levels.