It could be the Hard Knocks effect of everyone falling in love with Giovani Bernard. It could be the fact that Green-Ellis’ yards per carry and touchdown totals have dwindled over the past two years. Whatever the reason is, “The Law Firm’s” ADP has taken a nosedive over the past month or so. The current news out of Bengals camp is that Green-Ellis and Bernard will split carries 50-50 to start the season, but the prevailing thought around the fantasy community is that Bernard will claim the job by midseason.
Both of those outcomes are bad news for Green-Ellis. He’s more of a plodder who will struggle to give you a good amount of points via rushing yards from week to week and diminished carries will mean (at the very least) a minor dip in his opportunities at the goal line. I don’t think Bernard will ever claim the goal line back spot from Green-Ellis (so I’d avoid overdrafting the rookie as an aside), but Green-Ellis is going to be a risky start each and every week. There’s a very good chance he ends up being a lot more like Michael Bush than he does the BenJarvus of old, so I’m avoiding him unless he falls to a value I can’t pass up in the late rounds.