You Could Have Won By Using FPA
By Jake Ciely
One of the best and strangely underutilized tools in fantasy football is using Fantasy Points Allowed (FPA) when determining whom to start. For years, I’ve written about using FPA to help make the tough calls when deciding between players with similar values. For instance, would you be better off with Mark Ingram or Ben Tate in your flex spot? Well, you can take gut calls and throw them out the window because FPA gives you the unbiased, stats-based look at who truly is the best call.
To show you just how accurate FPA analysis can be, we’ll take a look back at 2012 to analyze how good FPA analysis can be… it’s analystatiscal!
If you used my recommendations coupled with FPA breakdowns, you were choosing the best players 71.3 percent of the time, or better! That 71.3 percent accuracy came from the tight end position. As we know, the position that the most inconsistent, frustrating and injury-riddled of all was the tight end spot.
Before we go through each position, here is how I calculated the accuracy. Calculation: 1) Took the average Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) for each position. 2) If the “good matchup” player eclipsed his positional average by two points or more, he received a full point. 3) If the player fell between the average and two points above, he received .67 (or two-thirds of a point). 4) If he fell below but was still within two points of the average, he received .33 (or one-third). 5) If he completely missed the mark, he received nothing. 6) The same goes for those with “tough matchups,” just inversed.
I am looking forward to trying this. So you will have draft targets and weekly guys to play?