College Football Picks for Week Seven
editor1 |Oct 08,2008
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By Jim Ralabate
PA SportsTicker College Football Editor
Week Seven is an interesting one in terms of handicapping
purposes, as nine games have spreads of under three points.
With my recent fortunes, I'm going to stay away from those
contests, which essentially are pick'em games.
At least I finally won a best bet, ending a four-week skid
there. Here are the picks for Week Seven (home teams are in
caps):
1. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8) over Temple. Coming off a bye week,
the Chippewas will make a concerted effort to finish strong
against the Owls.
Central Michigan's high-powered offense is led by dual-threat QB
Dan LeFevour, who passed for a season-high 403 yards in his last
game, and speedster Antonio Brown.
Although they will face a tough Temple defense, the Chippewas
will gradually capitalize against the Owls' suspect offense,
which will be without injured starting QB Adam DiMichele.
Mobile backup QB Chester Stewart has been hampered by a serious
foot injury which figures to further hinder Temple's offense.
Look for the Chippewas to pull away in the second half here.
Central Michigan wins, 28-13.
2. ** BEST BET ** Oklahoma (-7) over Texas. This is the game
that Bob Stoops, Sam Bradford and Co. have had circled on their
calendars all year.
Despite playing an early schedule that includes non-cupcakes in
TCU, Cincinnati and Washington, the Sooners have completely
rolled through their competition.
Enter Texas, which also has coasted through its schedule -
albeit against inferior competition. Colt McCoy and the
Longhorns will be in for a rude awakening, as the Sooners are
far ahead of anything they have faced.
Bradford figures to pick on Texas' young secondary, and look for
Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray to break a few long runs in what
could be his signature game of the season.
On the other side of the ball, Texas will need to establish its
running game to keep the Sooners honest. But the Longhorns have
not run the effectively all season, and they will be
hard-pressed to reverse that trend against Oklahoma's veteran
defense.
With their lack of a running game, the Longhorns will have to
turn to McCoy, who will play well but occasionally will revert
back to his mistake-prone form from last year.
Despite a heroic effort from McCoy, the Longhorns will not have
enough to keep up with the Sooners. Oklahoma wins, 37-23.
3. ** K-STED SPECIAL ** Toledo (+17) over MICHIGAN. Needless to
say, K-Sted was not pleased after the performance put forth by
Fresno State last week. That turnover-fest left K-Sted without
an appetite and searching for answers of where it all went
wrong.
K-Sted hunkered down early Sunday morning in hope to find those
answers. Just what did K-Sted find? A surprise, that's what
the big man stumbled upon.
K-Sted always has been impressed with Toledo. However, the
Rockets are struggling entering this week's contest at Michigan.
They have had three straight losses in which they've been
outscored by a whopping 121-70.
Those numbers make one wonder why anyone would still support
this outfit. A smiling K-Sted still does. Looking inside some
numbers, K-Sted realized the Rockets trailed a potent Ball State
squad, 3-0, in the third quarter last week before things went
awry. K-Sted sees a four-quarter effort this week.
When it comes to Big Ten football, that's what K-Sted is all
about. The big man loves smash-mouth football.
However, K-Sted doesn't feel like there is anything intimidating
about these Wolverines. Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez echoed
those sentiments this week, labeling his team as "soft"
following a 45-20 pummeling at the hands of Illinois in Ann
Arbor last week.
Despite last week's embarrassment, K-Sted does see some
improvement offensively out of the Wolverines in recent weeks.
Just not enough to warrant giving up more than two touchdowns.
Michigan wins but fails to cover, 28-16.
4. GEORGIA (-12) over Tennessee. I was almost considering
making this a best bet, as the Bulldogs will be licking their
chops at the sight of a struggling Tennessee team.
Georgia will be looking to make a statement here after losing in
embarrassing fashion two weeks ago at home to Alabama. The
ensuing bye week has allowed several of the Bulldogs' key
players to recover from minor injuries, including RB Knowshon
Moreno and QB Matthew Stafford.
Tennessee could be primed for a bounce-back performance after
consecutive SEC losses followed by a tight win over Northern
Illinois.
The Bulldogs will not get caught overlooking the Vols, who
routed Georgia in Knoxville last year en route to the SEC East
title. Although Tennessee will put up a fight, the Vols are not
on the same level talent-wise with the Bulldogs.
Look for Georgia to pull away in the second half here behind
Moreno and a stout defense. Bulldogs win, 31-10.
5. WISCONSIN (+5) over Penn State. The Badgers are in dire need
of a bounce-back performance after back-to-back, last-minute
losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
Traditionally an unbeatable team in Camp Randall Stadium,
Wisconsin squandered a fourth-quarter lead last week to lose at
home for the first time in two-plus seasons under Bret Bielema.
The Badgers will need to rebound this week, or they will be in
danger of becoming irrelevant in the Big Ten.
Look for Wisconsin to lean heavily on its underachieving running
game, especially RB P.J. Hill, who has seen his workload
mysteriously drop over recent weeks. Redshirt freshman RB John
Clay could have a major impact in this one too.
On the other side, Penn State clearly is the more talented team.
But the Nittany Lions stumbled a bit on the road last week
against a bad Purdue team, and they have not faced a true test
away from Happy Valley this year.
The Nittany Lions could escape Madison with a win, but five
points is way too high here. Penn State wins, 24-23.
6. MIAMI (-15) over Central Florida. Like Wisconsin, Miami is
hurting from back-to-back heartbreaking losses in conference
play.
That does not bode well for UCF, which has been outclassed in
its two road games this season. The Golden Knights have been
outscored by a combined margin of 92-19 in those contests,
against Boston College and UTEP.
The Hurricanes will feast on UCF's suspect defense, as QB Robert
Marve and RB Graig Cooper will continue their steady improvement
in Miami's offense.
On the other side, UCF will not be able to compete with Miami's
speedy defense. Hurricanes win in a laugher, 42-14.
7. Tulsa (-25) over SOUTHERN METHODIST. This is a mismatch of
cosmic proportions.
Led by QB David Johnson, the Golden Hurricane lead the nation in
total offense and have put up at least 56 points in each of
their last four games.
Conversely, SMU is 115th in the nation in scoring defense and
116th in total defense. Johnson and RB Charles Clay will have
their way with the Mustangs' awful defense.
On the other side, Tulsa has 13 takeaways in five games this
year - numbers that translate well against SMU's turnover-prone
QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Tulsa wins this one in a rout, 64-21.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS: 2-3.
BEST BETS: 2-4.
K-STED'S WEEKLY SPECIALS: 2-3-1.
SEASON RECORD (against the spread): 15-17-1.
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