 Surprises for 2008 Every year is full of surprises, though the chaos of 2007 may forever remain unrivaled. Whether it was Appalachian State beating Michigan in the Big House; South Florida pulling a win out of Auburn, Alabama; Colorado besting Oklahoma or Pitt robbing West Virginia of an appearance in the BCS Championship Game, the 2007 college football season seemed to shock the nation every week. Yet, even in a more "typical" football season, there are those teams which surprisingly crash the BCS party or else fall far short of their preseason expectations. By definition, surprises are unpredictable. Or are they? Here is Football.com's attempt to look into the future and identify those teams whose knock on the BCS door this year is unexpected as well as those teams whose 2008 will fall short of past expectations. 2008 BCS Party-Crashers: 1) Texas Tech: Last year, Mike Leach's Texas Tech team welcomed a returning starter at quarterback for the first time. Graham Harrell made his second-consecutive starting season special (5705 yards, 48 TD's, 72% completion-rate). He's back, again, and so is his favorite receiver - the nation's leading pass-catcher last year (134 catches, 1962 yards, 22 TD's) - Michael Crabtree. Detron Lewis (6-0, 198) had a fantastic spring and could be an effective plug for the only receiver hole left by graduation - that of Danny Amendola. Tailbacks are important in this scheme if only to supplement the team's blocking scheme. Leach has four candidates from which he wants to designate two to receive most snaps in 2008. Baron Batch is a good bet to earn the first start and while Aaron Crawford seems a good bet to receive the rest there is a reason that Shannon Woods continues to find the field despite continually residing in Leach's doghouse. The whole unit will be supported by what will likely be the largest (and one of the most experienced) offensive lines in the country - led by LG, Louis Vasquez (6-6, 335) and LT, Rylan Reed (6-7, 314). Defense has been this team's Achilles Heel but numerous transfers (e.g., JUCO defensive-ends McKinner Dixon [6-3, 275] and Brandon Sesay [6-6, 273] and former Miami (Fla.) nose-tackle, Chris Perry [whom the NCAA ruled was immediately eligible]) will provide the line with more talent and depth than the Red Raiders have fielded in the past. Free safety Darcel McBath (6-1, 196) brings great experience and ferocity to Tech's backfield. The Red Raiders avoid Missouri and Colorado in the North - two of the teams which confounded them last season - and their toughest non-conference challenge will be hosting SMU in week-three. Road games at Kansas and Oklahoma could hurt and the Raiders must finally figure out how to beat Texas (whom they host this year). Still, the schedule could be far worse. If the Red Raiders carry one loss or less into Norman and manage to beat the Sooners on the road, it will be hard difficult to keep them from the BCS party. 2) Brigham Young: BYU lost two games in a row early in 2007 (UCLA [17-27] and Tulsa [47-55]). They never lost again, including their revenge win (17-16) against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl. Max Hall (6-1, 201) took over the quarterback position as a mere sophomore and ended the season with 3,848 yards and 26 scores, including five 300-yard games. Freshman Harvey Unga (6-0, 243) took over at tailback in week three and finished the season having produced seven 100-yard games and a total of 1,227 yards (13 touchdowns). Hall and Unga are back this season, as is their top-receiver (Austin Collie [6-2, 205] - Spring's Offensive-MVP) and four linemen. Oh, they have a defense, too, though only four starters return. Fortunately, the returnees include Jan Jorgensen (6-3, 256), who collected 13.5 sacks (20 tackles for loss) from his defensive-end spot. They must replace their top-two tacklers - both linebackers - but they return David Nixon and look forward to the production of three very talented youngsters at cornerback (G Pittman and Brandon Bradley) and will likely start two juniors and two seniors in their backfield. The Cougars will have to travel to Washington, TCU and end the season in Utah's stadium and they must host UCLA. However, aside from, perhaps, Utah, the schedule is devoid of scary match-ups and BYU could very well navigate its way through without a loss. They have come from behind to beat Utah in each of the least two seasons. "Hello BCS, my name is Bronco Mendenhall. Do you mind if my boys and I come in and play?" 3) Utah: Formerly home to Florida's Urban Meyers, the Utes seem to be known for their offense. However, no team defended the pass better last year (50.5% completion-rate, 9 scores and 17 interceptions) and seven players with starting experience return to the backfield for 2008. Two linebackers were lost to graduation but Head Coach Kyle Wittingham is high on junior Mike Wright (6-2, 225), who will take over the middle spot (12 tackles in '07). Moreover, both nickel backs from last year return to a defense that often uses a five-back scheme. Quarterback Brian Johnson (6-1, 210) returns as does last year's leading-rusher, Darrell Mack (6-0, 219)(1,204 yards, 12 scores). The spring emergence of tailback Eddie Wide (5-10, 170) assures that the Utes will have some shake as well as depth in '08. Brent Casteel (5-10, 193) is a solid receiver whom the team may use as a rushing threat. Freddie Brown (6-3, 207) developed well this spring and, along with Casteel, Bradon Godfrey (6-3, 197) and Marquis Wilson (5-10, 175), assure the Utes of solid receiver depth. Utah's biggest games bookend their season. They open at Michigan's Big House but must be breathing a sigh of relief that it comes during a major rebuilding year for the Wolverines. They can win that game. The real question is whether they can get the gorilla of the BYU Cougars off their back. They have them at home this year. Odds are strong that the winner of that game will be BCS-bound. 4) Tulsa: Few college football fans know that the Golden Hurricane were the nation's top offense last year. They produced a 5,000-yard passer (Paul Smith [5,065 yards, 47 TD's]), a 1000-yard rusher (Tarrion Adams [1,225]) and three 1000-yard receivers (Brennan Marion [1,244 {31.9 yards per catch!}], Trae Johnson [1,088] and Charles Clay [1,024]). Smith is gone but the others return - as do four of the linemen. The front of Tulsa's 3-3-5 defense is anchored by seniors Terrel Nemons (6-4, 330) and Moton Hopkins (6-3, 270). Former defensive-end, George Clinkscale (6-0, 241), brings experience, albeit at an unfamiliar position, to a very young linebacker corps that must replace the 418 tackles posted last year by the graduated trio of Chris Chamberlain, Alain Karatepeyan and Nelson Coleman. Free safety Charles Davis is solid but it is still undetermined who will line up next to him at strong safety. If the Golden Hurricane defense becomes merely average, the team should be able to masterfully navigate its way through what some are calling the nation's easiest schedule (their toughest opponents are a rebuilding-Arkansas (away) and UCF (home)). 5) Ole Miss: The SEC West will be jumbled this year due to the rebuilding projects at LSU and Arkansas and with Project-Saban likely one year from bearing its ultimate fruits. Auburn appears to be the early favorite in the division but few seem to be talking about the Rebels. Former Texas quarterback Jevan Snead is finally eligible and had a very productive spring. Tailbacks Cordera Eason (6-1, 235) and JUCO-transfer, Enrique Davis (5-11, 220), should form a formidable tailback duo that is expected to bring balance to the offense (thereby reducing the pressure placed on Snead). Mike Wallace (6-0, 180) was the Rebels' leading-receiver last year and can stretch things vertically. Incoming-freshman, Andrew Harris (6-4, 190) is a tall burner who could give the Rebels multiple threats and Houston Nutt's new H-back position will be manned by Dexter McCluster (5-9, 165), who burst on to the scene for Ole Miss as a true freshman. Defensive-end Greg Hardy posted ten sacks and 18.5 tackles for a loss last year. His return along with that of fellow-end Marcus Tillman and tackle, Jerry Peria, assure the Rebels the ability to control the line of scrimmage more often than not in 2008. Word is that Jarrell Powe (6-3, 338) may actually qualify, academically, which would add great talent and depth to the line. Patrick Willis was the last great Ole Miss linebacker and Patrick Trahan could well be the next. Three returnees to the defensive backfield give the Rebels a wealth of experience in the passing game. Road games at Wake Forest, Florida, Alabama and LSU as well as a home game against Auburn are obvious obstacles to the Rebels' season but there is a chance that Nutt (who has a history of beating Alabama, Auburn and being competitive with LSU) could dial-in his team to win more of those match-ups than they lose. Possible Disappointments: 1) West Virginia: Before everybody goes into convulsions, let me say this is a call I hate to make. I am a huge fan of Pat White and agree he is the most lethal "O" on anybody's chart - when healthy. He has not made it through the past two seasons intact and, without Owen Schmitt and Darius Reynaud to lessen his slack, he could be even more vulnerable this year. The spring appeared to place him in the pocket more than he found himself the last two seasons and, if that translates into the 2008 season, you have the curious dynamic of reducing run-based hits while increasing his exposure on passing plays. He is an underrated passer but Reynaud was an underrated receiver. It will be up to Tito Gonzales to pick up where he left off in last year's bowl game against the Sooners. It is common for people to point out that Bill Stewart beat Oklahoma in the bowl game. He was instrumental; no doubt. However, Calvin Magee stayed behind to call the offense for that game and is now with Coach Rod in Michigan and the departed Schmitt was half of the heart-and-soul (White being the other half) that rallied the team, emotionally, to storm the field for the win. Oh, teams also have defenses. The 'Neers generally line up in a 3-3-5 scheme and have lost two of their starting linemen from last year and four of their five starting defensive backs, including All-Big East safety, Eric Wicks. In fact, the graduating DB's took 55 of last year's starts with them. Athletic of not, that loss of experience will leave a mark. The Big East is very balanced and conference trips to Louisville, Connecticut and Pitt are not gimmes. Add in road trips to Colorado and East Carolina (an improved squad that could win Conference USA this year) as well as a home game against Auburn, and this schedule is not made for the breaking in of a new coaching staff.
2) Connecticut: Another Big East team? Yes. This one is a tight call. On one hand, the Huskies return nearly everybody from last year's team (only four starters are lost). On the other hand, they trade-in Duke, Maine, and Akron for this year's non-conference lineup of Baylor, Virginia and North Carolina while keeping a Temple team on their schedule that returns, intact, its entire defense from last year (that game is on the road, too). Add in conference road trips to Rutgers, Louisville and South Florida and it seems unlikely that last year's 9-4 record will be repeated.
Randy Edsall is a good coach and the tailback duo of Andre Dixon and Donald Brown is hard to beat. Still, UConn will not sneak up on people in 2008 like they did last year. 3) UCF: Central Florida has quietly built itself into a semi-power the last few years. Last season's 10-4 record won Head Coach George O'Leary the C-USA Coach of the Year award. However, a behind-the-scenes earthquake occurred this offseason which may have irreparably damaged the foundation of this program. It all began on March 18th, when redshirt freshman wide receiver, Ereck Plancher, died following a conditioning team workout. Investigation continues into the incident but it must be stated that some teammates anonymously reported to the local paper that Plancher stumbled and fell near the end of the workout and appeared to be in dire straits. The players further claimed that O'Leary cussed Plancher's effort in front of the team when the session was complete and before Plancher collapsed for the final time. Investigation into the matter continues and the staff certainly denies the truthfulness of the anonymous claims. However, Plancher's teammate, Cliff McCray (who was penciled into start at guard), left the team rather than meet with the staff after the incident. Tailback Phillip Smith (a candidate to take over for the nation's leading rusher last year, Kevin Smith) also left the team amid whispers that he was one of the newspaper's "informants." Morale is a delicate bird - it requires incredible effort, patience and skill to develop over a period of time and it takes just minutes to send the house of cards falling to the ground. The Golden Knight's bird might have died this spring. Typically, a teammate's death is a rallying point for a team but the fractures related to Plancher's death and the staff's purported reaction to the same are not easily repaired. This may be a team in search of itself in 2008. Meanwhile, the team must replace the aforementioned Smith as well as their starting quarterback and four offensive linemen (including two all-conference players). The defense returns relatively intact but-for two gaps on the line. Road trips to Boston College, UTEP , Miami and Tulsa loom large for a team that must rebuild on and off the field. Only a masterpiece of coaching and player-effort could duplicate last year's record. 4) Kansas: Like the West Virginia pick, this one hurts, personally. However, there are several reasons to support this pick. First, KU's meteoric rise last year came during a season in which it played nobody of substance out of conference and stood nearly alone in competence in the Big 12 North. Colorado was still rebuilding, Nebraska was kidnapped by aliens and the Jayhawks were not required to face Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma out of the South. Mizzou was the lone North challenger - and the Tigers beat KU36-28 to end the regular season. This year, Kansas adds a road trip to South Florida to a conference schedule that now includes road trips to Oklahoma and Nebraska as well as home games against Texas and Texas Tech - the latter being a homecoming game, which will not sit well with the Red Raiders. KU's graduation losses were few but substantial. They lost their best tailback (Brandon McAnderson), their best offensive-lineman (Anthony Collins), their best receiver (Brian Murph), their best tight-end (Derek Fine), their best defensive -lineman (James McClinton) and their best defensive-back (Aqib Talib). The bulk of the team returns, including the gritty Todd Reesing at quarterback and former-QB, Kerry Meier at receiver. They also return what may be the nation's premier line-backing corps and Chris Harris (6-0, 180, So.), another potential cornerback All-American. Few teams are able to repeat the good fortune KU enjoyed last year while ending up +21 in turnover margin. Almost by definition, they are due to lose some of the lucky bounces that landed in their favor last year. Also, off-season coaching-staff defections could be a reflection of discouragement behind the magic curtain. In 2007, Kansas found itself in the curious position of BCS contender. This year, they are likely to find themselves in the equally curious position of having improved on last year's model while posting a worse record. 5) Miami: Miami is a very talented team, enhanced by Coach Shannon's recent recruiting class which featured several of the nation's top recruits. However, freshmen are freshmen and few teams have won with green players filling crucial positions. The 'Canes enter 2008 with four freshmen competing to start are quarterback. It is possible that a combination of the candidates will see the field which will delay the development of unit continuity. Moreover, the team's top receivers from last year are gone (Darnell Jenkins and Lance Leggett). Granted the passing game was AWOL the last two seasons and this year's passing game could benefit from young, new blood. Still, Miami's is not likely to become a top-notch passing-attack and a line which must replace three starters from last season will not aid the development of its lethality. The U's defense should return to dominance. Two linemen are lost but one spot will likely be filled by super-recruit, Marcus Forston (6-2, 309) and end, Eric Moncur, is a monster. Safeties Kenny Phillips and Willie Cooper will be hard to replace but Randy Phillips and Lovon Ponder are the likely replacements and they both have past starting experience to bring to the field. The talent-level of this team, combined with the transition into year-two of Coach Randy Shannon's system, means Miami should improve. Yet, they went 5-7 last year and face their typically murderous schedule which includes road games to Florida (2nd game of the year), Texas A&M, Virginia and N.C. State as well as home stands against Florida State, a much-improved North Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. Miami will not likely repeat last year's poor record but there could easily be four or five losses hidden in that schedule. The motto is often stated, "Defense wins ball games." Miami must pray it is accurate since its offense will certainly take some time to season.
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