2008 Baylor Bears Preview

2008 Baylor Bears Preview

Football.com analyst DJ Boyer looks at the Baylor Bears and their chances to rebound from a 3-9 season and a last place finish in the Big 12 South in 2007. The Bears will come into this season with a new head coach in Art Briles, but will the change be enough to help the Bears improve from a dismal 2008 campaign?

Coaching – Guy Morriss is out after a tough tenure at Baylor and Art Briles is in. Briles comes over from Houston where he helped turn around a program that had been 0-11 before his arrival. Briles will have to turn things around at Baylor as they lost their last 8 games of the season and didn’t get within 20 points in any of those losses. Since joining the Big 12 Baylor has went 35-101 in conference and hasn’t had a winning season since 1995.
 
Schedule – Being the doormat of the Big 12 doesn’t exactly bring an easy schedule. After opening the season against Wake Forest at home the Bears have two more home games where they should be competitive against Northwestern State and Washington State. Home games against Iowa State (October 11th) and Texas A&M (November 15th) look like the best chances Baylor has at stealing a Big 12 game.
 
Offense – It’s hard to get an accurate read on the offense because there is no clear cut starter at the quarterback position that has been announced. There are three people that all have a shot at landing the job but at this time I think we may see a quarterback by committee approach or have someone settle into the starting role a little later in the season. The 2007 starter Blake Szymanski is a junior who threw for over 2,800 yards but also chucked 18 interceptions and fumbled the ball six times. The 24 turnovers there played a huge part in the 37 total turnovers Baylor had and their -18 in turnover margin was dead last at the Division I-A level. If Szymanski isn’t the starter it could be Miami (Fla.) transfer Kirby Freeman who himself threw 16 interceptions while splitting time with the Hurricanes. I think in the long run true freshman Robert Griffin will be who the Bears turn to simply due to his athleticism. Griffin had added some muscle to his 6-3 frame and at 210 pounds still has blazing track speed. If Griffin can establish any type of consistent passing rhythm he should get the nod and Baylor has a quarterback they can rely on four years. Baylor needs some consistent quarterback play because as muddled as the situation looks the running back situation looks even worse. The best running option Baylor has is Jay Finley and while he is a tough runner who should be durable he won’t strike fear into opposing defenses. There is very little depth to speak of although the Baylor backs do look like they are all capable receivers and may contribute more in that facet of the game then actually running the football. The Baylor wide receivers all have great height and the top three receivers on the depth chart combined for 98 catches a season ago, so the experience is there as well. Again the offense will come down to the passing game and weather the quarterback thrown in the system gets into a rhythm. If this happens Baylor has a great mix of size and speed at the position so this could be an area where Baylor gives us a pleasant surprise. The tackles along the offensive line are stellar and left tackle Jason Smith should be playing in the NFL when 2009 rolls around. Center J.D. Walton also shows flashes of being not only a good but a dominant player so the line is not as bad as many of the other areas we have highlighted on offense. The main concern is depth. Many of the backups along the line are underclassmen with little to no big game experience.
 
Defense – Last season tried to take advantage of their athleticism in the secondary by employing a 4-2-5 scheme on most occasions but this did little to slow down the high powered offenses within the Big 12. Baylor should be moving to a more traditional 4-3 front for at least 80% of their snaps in 2008 with a little 3-4 thrown in due to the fact that the strength of the team should be the linebacking corps and the play at defensive tackle. Vincent Rhodes and Trey Bryant are a great tandem up the middle and combine that with the solid play of linebackers Joe Pawelek and Antonio Jones and you can see why Baylor may have a defense where teams will have to find more success in the air than on the ground. Pawelek is a scrapper who always seems to be around the ball and although he doesn’t look very athletic he is more athletic than many give him credit for. Defensive end Jason Lamb leads a group of defensive ends lacking star power but is very deep. They will give you a lot of looks and many of the ends have experience at linebacker as well. Aside from free safety Jordan Lake the secondary doesn’t have a lot of star power but once again experience seems to be there. Jeremy Williams and Krys Buerck were reserves a year ago that find themselves starting in 2008. While both were not in the starting lineup for most games they saw plenty of action and combined for 51 tackles. Buerck also saw time at wide receiver where he caught 21 passes in 2007 and if injuries hit the receiving corps he could be available for some spot duty again. Dwain Crawford is back at cornerback but he seemed to get picked on a lot over the last two seasons. He won’t make the All-Conference team but he should nom longer be the weakest link in the Baylor secondary.
 
Special Teams – Special teams was a disaster last year. It all started with trying to replace Daniel Sepulveda at punter (he received the highest pre-draft grade from me of any punter I had ever scouted since breaking into scouting in 1999). Everyone knew a dropoff would occur but going to 116th in the nation after three years in the top 5 nationally! That’s not a dropoff that’s a freefall. Here is hoping Derek Epperson turns things around in 2008. Shea Brewster didn’t fare any better at placekicker hitting only three attempts last season. David Gettis is the only return man with experience for Baylor and he may be the bright spot but that isn’t saying much when you look at what they did kicking last season.
 
Outlook – Hate to sound like such a downer here but things look very dismal for Baylor and they could be one of the worst Division I-A teams we see taking the field in 2008. Making matters worse is every other team in the Big 12 South could be headed to a Bowl Game…3 wins with 1 coming in the Big 12 may be considered a positive step.

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