Can Brady duplicate 2007 for fantasy owners?

Can Brady duplicate 2007 for fantasy owners?

Started planning your strategy for your fantasy draft that is coming up in the next few months? For those who already have certain players the top of their wish lists, read on before you etch their ranking in stone.

It goes without saying that quarterback Tom Brady and wide receiver Randy Moss from New England will be at the top of the list at their respective positions after putting up astronomical numbers a year ago. But before you trade your life away for either player, let's look a little deeper into what the future may hold in store for Brady.

As everyone knows, Tom Brady had a record setting year in 2007 as he threw for over 4,800 yards with 50 touchdown passes. He was by far the best in the NFL. But before you jump and grab him a little too early, look over some numbers.

Before 2007, Brady had never thrown more than 30 touchdown passes in a single season and had only surpassed the 4,000 mark once before in his six seasons as a starter. Granted, Brady never had Randy Moss to throw to prior to 2007, but his best previous touchdown total for a single season was 28.

When Peyton Manning threw 49 touchdown passes back in 2004; he was also on fire. Unlike Brady, Manning had thrown for over 4,000 yards in five of his six previous NFL campaigns, But as good as he was, his previous best was 33 touchdown passes.

The more interesting numbers are what Manning did before and after his record-breaking season. Before 2004, Manning had attempted well over 500 passes in all of his previous seasons. In 2004, for the first time in his career, he threw under 500 passes (497). But even with fewer attempts, Manning achieved what many felt was nearly impossible.

And what Manning did after his record-breaking season is what one must consider before going after Tom Brady maybe too early.

In 2005, Manning threw 40 fewer passes and came away with 28 touchdown passes for the season. He threw the same number of interceptions (10) and his completion percentage was nearly exactly the same as it was in 2003 and 2004. So it wasn't as though he was making bad throws or bad decisions, the huge numbers just weren't there.

This is where the difference between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady lies. In 2007, Brady attempted 578 passes and his completion percentage was the highest of any single season in his career (68.9). He also threw career low eight interceptions a year ago.

Breaking down the numbers raises some important questions when it comes to Tom Brady in 2008.

Will Brady have to make as many pass attempts to even come close to his production of 2007? And can he be as accurate as he was a year ago?

Another thing that also must be considered is the state of the New England defense. The Patriots have lost a great deal in the secondary. New England had a total of 19 interceptions a year ago. They have lost five players (Asante Samuel, Eugene WIlson, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Randall Gay)  who accounted for 14 of those 19 picks. That could pose a problem for Brady and his owners.

If the Patriots become weaker on defense and cannot keep opposing offenses off the field, common logic would tell us that Brady would be stuck on the sidelines where he obviously cannot do his owners much good.

Brady backers will point to the fact that in 2004, Peyton Manning had an average defense but yet still managed to break the record. But we've already pointed out the major difference between the two.

Tom Brady had to set career marks in some areas that he had never come close to in order to put up the amazing numbers he did in 2007. Manning had been consistent in some of those same areas.

The bottom line is that the odds of Tom Brady repeating his 2007 performance are not on his side. With everything in his favor, it would be a monumental feat and the numbers Peyton Manning has had since his record-setting 2004 season prove that.

This is not to say Brady would not be one of the best options at the quarterback position for potential owners. But don't overpay for him expecting the same production as he had in 2007.

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