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Patriots-Chargers Preview

Greg Stephens  |Jan 18,2008
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Patriots-Chargers Preview

Sunday is the big day.  The whole world holds its breath, waiting to answer the question:  will the Patriots continue to march towards history, or will the Chargers be the team to knock them off the mountain?

When the Patriots have the ball-Last week, I posed the question, "What more can be said about the Patriot's offense?"  I didn't expect to be able to give an answer to that rhetorical question, but now I can.

Tom Brady picked apart a very good Jacksonville defense like I've never seen any quarterback do to any team.  He threw twenty-eight times and completed twenty-six passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

The Chargers' defense is fairly similar to that of Jacksonville.  The Chargers secondary is the weakest part of the unit, while possessing a strong and physical defensive line and good linebackers.  The only way the Chargers' defense will be able to stop the Patriots will be to watch the Jaguars' game film-and do the opposite. 

The true lesson to take from last week's game against the Jaguars involved Randy Moss.  He caught a mere one pass for fourteen yards.  Almost shut out.  How did that impact the Patriots' offense?  The Jaguars' preoccupation with Moss opened up seven other receivers for Brady and allowed Laurence Maroney to run for 122 yards and a touchdown.

Randy Moss is the most dangerous receiver on the team, but the Chargers can't preoccupy themselves with him to the exclusion of Welker, Brady, Stallworth, Watson…you get the picture.  Also, the Jaguars only had one sack on Tom Brady, on the first play of New England's first drive, if I recall correctly.  They were afraid to bring the pressure on Brady, and he made them pay.  The Chargers have the line and backers to put pressure on Brady and need to do it to have any measure of success.

When the Chargers have the ball-How can anyone answer this question?  At this point, no one is certain who is going to play on the Chargers' offense.  If LaDainian Tomlinson plays, he will certainly be able to distract the Patriots' defense and hopefully open up passing lanes for Philip Rivers.  This, of course, assumes Rivers plays. 

If Rivers doesn't play, quarterbacking duties will fall to Billy Volek.  Volek was a competent quarterback in Tennessee, but won't be throwing as much as Rivers merely because of his inactivity this season.  If Volek does play, the Patriots will concentrate on stopping the run, giving some leeway to the passing game and forcing Volek to make mistakes.

If Tomlinson doesn't play, and Michael Turner does, don't expect the Chargers' basic offensive game plan to change significantly.  Turner is almost as good of a rusher as Tomlinson and can keep the Patriots occupied.

If neither Tomlinson nor Rivers play, all bets are off.  The Chargers managed to get by with that scenario for one half of a game last week against Indianapolis, but that was only because the Colts were missing tackles like an old man from Kentucky misses teeth.  If the Chargers find themselves in this situation this Sunday, the Patriots' defense will not miss tackles or let Volek slip in from the one-yard line. 

Final Analysis-San Diego has too many questions on offense at this point.  Is Gates one-hundred percent?  Will Tomlinson and Rivers play?  If they do, how effective will they be?  Any team that looks to go toe-to-toe with the Patriots has to be prepared to score quickly and score often.  The Chargers cannot do that if these three players are not on their top games.   Rivers has been so sporadic, and Tomlinson has been more human this season, which means the Chargers may not be able to function effectively even if they are all in top shape.

The Patriots are a machine on both sides of the ball.  The Chargers can only win this game if they force the Patriots to make mistakes on both offense and defense.  No other team has been able to do that this season.  The Chargers don't have enough juice to be the first.

Patriots win, 38-24.




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