Jake Ciely

#FLEX Week 4 Recap - Luck Matters

Created on Oct. 02, 2013 8:10 AM EST

#FLEX League (link)

It came down to Garrett Hartley and 1.16 points. Yup, one more missed field goal and one less extra point, and I would have been staring at three losses in a row. Truthfully, I don’t feel proud about this win. How could I? Ryan Broyles gave me a fat, super-sized goose egg, and Brandon Myers did the same. C’mon Broyles! I half expect a zero from Myers half of the time given the state of the Giants, but you were supposed to step up in Nate Burleson’s absence… not put up less point, let alone none!

One thing we’ll never know is if Terrelle Pryor would have led me to this win. I was forced to grab Philip Rivers Sunday morning, and his 27.04 points coupled with Demaryius Thomas notching 29.60 saved my fantasy week. Look at it this way, when your kicker outscores four other positions and almost a fifth, it’s a bad week. Not as bad as Jeff Mans (@Jeff_Mans) though - the unfortunate loser in this stink fest. Eli Manning, C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson spelled his doom.

Both David Gonos (@davidgonos) and Scott Pianowski (@scott_pianowski) poured it on this week with 176.88 and 179.98 points, respectively. Gonos had four starters top 25 points, led by Mr. Antonio Gates. It might be about that time to declare Gates back! The only spot where Pianowski didn’t notch double-digit points was his kicker, while Tony Gonzalez led the charge with 38.90 points.

Time to check in with the owners.

Jeff Mans (My Opponent)

1. Is there ever more proof of the amount of luck involved with fantasy football that a 1.16-point loss?

There is a fair amount of luck in anything. A loss of five of less points obviously conjure up woulda, coulda, shoulda's, but I strongly do feel that over the course of a season and multiple seasons that the best most informed owners win in fantasy football. Just for the record though, I would like you to eat a bag of [editor’s redaction, ha] for your narrow victory!!

2. The experts seem to be split on Trent Richardson. Some say sell high because touchdowns are the only thing keeping him "top tier," while others say the best is coming. Where do you sit?

Trent Richardson is a useful fantasy RB. However, it is clear that he is not the type of player the Browns thought they had when drafting him third overall in 2012. He is much closer to Knowshon Moreno than he will ever be to Adrian Peterson talent wise. Still, the Colts are poised to give him a lot of work, and in this day and age of Fantasy RBs that is an awfully useful commodity.

3. Speaking of buying low, as a Eli Manning owner, do you see any reason to buy him, David Wilson or Hakeem Nicks?

I am LOVING David Wilson as a buy low guy right now. I've noticed a big jump in his performance between Week 2 after the benching until now. He is once again running with authority and not worrying about protecting the football. There is some big upside potential here with Wilson, which is exactly why so many drafted him in the first round back in August. What's happening to Eli Manning is similar to what happened to Philip Rivers except Rivers doesn't have Eli's resume. The offensive line is hurting him, as is the lack of a running game. I would buy low on all of these Giants however, Eli is no longer a guy I would be comfortable starting on a weekly basis.

- Take note. I am sending out offers on David Wilson in all leagues, and it’s clear than Mans is in the same boat. As for Richardson, if someone is willing to offer you mid-to-upper RB1 value for him, I’d sell. It’s doubtful that Richardson will ever live up to the AP comparison, and with two decent RBs behind him, he doesn’t need to touch the ball 25-30 times a game.

Tim Heaney (@Tim_Heaney) (Lowest Scorer)

Normally, we catch the top scorer, but Gonos and Pianowski both chimed in recently, so we’re going to the opposite end this week.

1. As a Chris Johnson owner, are you starting to panic (or at least worry) for his 2013 season?

He's faced some tough defenses so far, and the Chargers game was his "breakout" effort, at least in terms of YPC. Jake Locker's injury will probably hurt, and the schedule doesn't look much better in the next three weeks (KC, @SEA, SF), but after the bye, it clears up a tad. Since it's PPR, I'm hoping he'll contribute that way at least to keep me afloat with RB2 numbers while I try to catch fire another way at RB.

2. Similar question for Roddy White. Are owners stuck? Will we see the Roddy White we know this season?

I was hoping to avoid starting Roddy this week, but Miles Austin's injury forced me to, basically. I think he's little by little getting back to his old self and could be in for a big second half. I'd try buying low on him in PPRs if I were fantasy owners. Hopefully, until he shows it on the field, owners have made preparations around him. He's a dead spot, but one I'm willing to carry so early in the year.

3. You have Johnathan Franklin stashed on the bench. What's your outlook for him with Eddie Lacy likely returning this week as well?

After splurging on James Starks, I grabbed Franklin for free after waivers ran last week. He was on a bye, and I figured no one else would want him. I liked the explosiveness I saw in GB's last contest, and I think his workload will be safer once Lacy returns, because he's a changeup option. Starks is more redundant. With CJwhateverK stalling and Darren McFadden again hurt, I'm trying to take chances anywhere I can. Sort of why I'm also holding Mark Ingram in hopes of a trade to a better system/situation.

- Here’s hoping for Heaney because it isn’t looking good. Owners of either CJK or White can’t trade them now unless they’re willing to eat the lost value. Owning both? Sorry Tim, rough spot. Franklin was a nice grab, and if he is out there, I’d stash him too. There was talk before the preseason that Franklin could lead the backfield, as he reportedly had a better skill set.


Apparently, I’m the only one who knows that Darren McFadden makes crystal vases look like cast-iron sledgehammers. While the report is that DMC suffered a Grade 1 sprain and his timeframe is unknown, I’ll take the $12 gamble on grabbing Rashad Jennings. Hey, a starting running back is a starting running back, and with the byes, I’ll get at least a week or two use out of him. In a slow week, only three other players cost FAAB money: Nate Washington ($5), Falcons D/ST ($4) and Chris Ogbonnaya ($3). That’s about what I’d spend if I were targeting any. Of course, there are several bigger and better names available in many leagues. So…

For more waiver wire recommendations, make sure to check out John Kerwin’s Waiver Wire Matinee.

Week 5

While I am happy to get Aaron Rodgers off the bye, I’m not thrilled with my WR situation. Dwayne Bowe has disappointed, Broyles, well we covered that, and Golden Tate has been a letdown. At least I’m also happy to get Greg Olsen back, as he’s continually underrated in PPR leagues. I square off with Nando DiFino this week, and if my receivers don't step up, I could be in for a tough week. Scott Pianowski and Eric Mack go head-to-head in the “Game of the Week.” Let’s see if Scott’s dominating scores can knock Mack from the undefeated perch.

Best Ball (link)

Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) registered the top score… AGAIN. That gives him three of the four weeks as top dog! Clay’s lead now tops 50 points. Maybe, just maybe, his mediocre QB crew of Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Terrelle Pryor will put a dent in his season… eventually. Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) holds on to second place, but Bob Harris closed the gap with a nice 180.54 score – best of his season. Ryan Bonini (@ryanbonini) keeps hovering in the 140s to 160s, as he maintains his mid-pack positioning. Meanwhile, Jeff Erickson (@Jeff_Erickson) went from battling near the top after two weeks to last thanks to back-to-back lowest scores. To be fair, I think Ray Rice and CJK may be intentionally trying to ruin his season.

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