Germany’s dark-horse label is unusual for a nation with four World Cup titles. However, the report highlights their group-stage exits at the last two World Cups, a record that has changed how the team is viewed.
That shift could remove some of the pressure traditionally associated with Germany. A run into the latter stages would represent a clear improvement, while a quarter-final appearance would restore credibility before the title conversation becomes realistic.
Lineker’s prediction is therefore based less on current tournament evidence than on the possibility of a reset. Germany’s reputation has dipped, but that may create room for a stronger campaign than many expect.
The opening days of the expanded 48-team World Cup have already produced several results that complicate the traditional pecking order. The report lists:
If those results are sustained, the tournament’s wider field could become a genuine threat to the usual favourites. More teams have entered with the belief that one strong performance can reshape a group.
The update also describes the United States’ opening display against Paraguay as stronger than many expected. That improvement gives the hosts an immediate platform, but Lineker’s pants pledge was framed as a wager against the Americans winning the tournament rather than a prediction in their favour.
The next group matches will test both storylines: whether Germany can turn lowered expectations into progress, and whether the USA’s promising start can develop into a serious tournament run.