Under the reported order of tiebreakers, results between tied teams come before goal difference. That can end a qualification race even when a team still has a mathematical route to the same points total.
The report says Turkey can reach only three points by beating the United States, having already lost to Australia and Paraguay. Because Turkey has fallen to both rivals, it would remain behind them in any tie on three points.
Haiti faces the same barrier. Even victory against Morocco would leave the Caribbean side on three points, but earlier defeats by Scotland and Brazil would keep it behind those teams in a points tie.
The reported numbers underline how little margin Turkey has left. Vincenzo Montella’s team has lost 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay, while failing to score in either match.
The update also puts Turkey’s total at 62 shots across the two games. That contrast - considerable attacking volume but no goals - has made the early elimination particularly stark. Possession and pressure cannot compensate once the head-to-head record has closed the escape route.
Haiti’s position is even more difficult after a 1-0 loss to Scotland and a 3-0 defeat by Brazil. The side enters its final fixture without a point and with a reported goal difference of minus four.
The wider tournament format was designed to create more opportunities, including a route for the strongest third-placed teams. Yet the reported tiebreaker has removed that pathway for both nations.
Their final matches now carry pride rather than qualification stakes. Turkey faces the United States, while Haiti meets Morocco - fixtures that will test whether either team can leave the group stage with a first result.