City’s absence from the elite would have opened space for their rivals. The report’s scenario has Carlos Tevez staying permanently at Manchester United after his loan spell, potentially strengthening a team already built around Wayne Rooney and, later, Robin van Persie.
That could have altered several defining moments:
The point is not that every result would have changed. It is that City’s sustained dominance removed repeated opportunities from the clubs around them.
A smaller City would also have changed the movement of elite talent. Kevin De Bruyne might still have arrived in 2015, but retaining him against Europe’s established superclubs would have been far more difficult.
Cole Palmer and Rico Lewis, meanwhile, could have enjoyed clearer routes into the first team. That would have altered both City’s development pathway and the wider transfer market.
The managerial consequences are even more dramatic. Pep Guardiola would reportedly have been more likely to join Paris Saint-Germain before moving to Arsenal. In that version of events, Erling Haaland could have followed him to north London, while Arteta’s career might have taken him to PSG.
The hypothetical City resembles Newcastle’s current model: occasional major signings, regular player sales and heavier reliance on academy graduates. The report projects league finishes generally between fifth and 10th, alongside periodic cup runs and a possible Carabao Cup win under Eddie Howe.
The next storyline is whether financial rules can prevent another club from creating such a long-lasting competitive gap. City’s appeal remains important, but the larger question is whether English football can produce a more balanced title race without relying on an alternate history.