2026-27 Championship projection: Birmingham up, Wrexham out

Why Birmingham stand out

The headline is not just promotion, but the path. The projection has Birmingham finishing in the playoff places, then seeing off Sheffield United over two legs before winning the final. For a club that has been away from the Premier League since 2011, that would be a major turn.

The logic is clear enough on paper:

• Birmingham are projected to have enough depth for a long season.
• Their reported summer business includes Jhon Solis, Luis Vazquez, Kristoffer Lund and Dael Fry.
• In a division where momentum shifts quickly, stronger options often matter as much as star quality.

Wrexham’s margin for error

The same projection is tougher on Wrexham. They are forecast to finish seventh, just two points behind Sheffield United, the final playoff side. That is the Championship in a sentence: one strong month can lift a club into the mix, one flat spell can end the push.

Other reports already place Wrexham straight into the thick of the early-season schedule, with a trip to Cardiff City coming up on 17 August 2026. If they are going to beat this kind of model, fast starts and consistency away from home will be essential.

The wider promotion picture

The top of the division looks loaded.

• West Ham are projected champions under Nuno Espirito Santo.
• Middlesbrough are tipped to go up automatically despite reported squad changes.
• Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers are also forecast to be firmly in the playoff race.

At the bottom, the same forecast has Bolton Wanderers, Lincoln City and Queens Park Rangers going down, with Charlton Athletic surviving late.

Projections always sharpen the conversation rather than settle it. The next step is the real one: early fixtures, transfer-window finishing touches and whether clubs like Birmingham and Wrexham can turn a computer’s outline into a genuine season-long charge.