The safest bet is a Mourinho side shaped by a back four and a strong central screen.
That approach fits Mourinho’s history. His best sides have defended with short distances between the lines and attacked quickly once the ball is won. A busy summer usually makes that even more likely. New signings need simple tasks first, not tactical overload.
Mourinho has always valued midfielders who can cover ground, win duels and carry the ball through pressure.
That is where the balance of the side will be set. If Madrid’s new-look squad has added depth in defence and energy in midfield, Mourinho may not need long spells of possession. He will want clean recoveries, direct counters and protection against transitions. That can make the team look restrained at first, but it is often how his strongest platforms are built.
Even elite forwards in a Mourinho team usually play inside a framework.
That does not mean conservative football. It means attacks launched with purpose. Mourinho’s first Real Madrid spell was at its best when the team broke fast and attacked the far post with conviction.
The next clue will come as the window develops and early team selections take shape. Watch the spine: the goalkeeper, the centre-backs, the holding midfielders and the central striker. If Mourinho settles those roles quickly, the rest of the picture usually follows.