Why the World Cup could tip it
For most years, club silverware and headline production build the strongest case. This year looks different.
- World Cup weight often reshapes the mood of the vote.
- A strong club season may not be enough without a defining summer.
- A major international winner gains narrative momentum fast.
That is why Lamine Yamal and Rodri feel central to the conversation, even against attackers with bigger raw numbers.
The strongest all-round cases
Two names stand out because they combine silverware with major moments.
- Ousmane Dembele reportedly delivered in the Champions League for Paris Saint-Germain.
- The report says he scored 2 against Liverpool and 3 against Bayern Munich in the knockout rounds.
- It also credits him with 6 goals and 2 assists in 8 World Cup games for France.
Then there is Yamal.
- The report says he won the World Cup and LaLiga with Barcelona.
- It credits him with 24 goals and 18 assists across the season.
- Even with only 1 World Cup goal, the winner’s medal matters.
Kane and Mbappe remain dangerous challengers
The pure numbers keep Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe firmly alive.
- Kane reportedly finished the season with 61 goals and 7 assists for Bayern Munich.
- He also scored 6 for England, but their run reportedly lost force after the quarter-finals.
- Mbappe is said to have posted 10 goals and 4 assists in 8 World Cup matches.
- His club output for Real Madrid was also elite, but the lack of silverware could hurt him.
Nothing looks settled yet. If the shortlist lands in September without a runaway favourite, the next storyline will be simple: whether voters reward the player with the best season, or the one who owned the summer.