The prices are not traditional forecasts or official odds. They reflect what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to a team winning the tournament, meaning sentiment can rise or fall with squad news, injuries, form and the draw.
The report places Portugal and England near the next group of contenders, with holders Argentina also in the conversation. The gap between the leading teams and the chasing pack remains narrow enough for one major development to reshape the market.
That is the attraction for traders: a position can be bought before the tournament and sold later if a team makes a strong start or benefits from a favourable route through the knockout stages.
The report says World Cup winner markets have already generated billions in trading volume before kick-off, with one major market approaching $2 billion and another surpassing $100 million.
The tournament’s expanded field and packed schedule create repeated opportunities for prices to move. Every team announcement, disciplinary decision and result can become a fresh test of confidence.
That growth is bringing scrutiny. The report says US regulators and state authorities disagree over whether sports-event contracts should be treated as financial products or gambling.
Platforms argue that monitoring can limit manipulation and suspicious trading, particularly when information may move prices before it becomes public. Critics see a familiar betting market operating under a different label.
As the opening match approaches, the biggest question is whether Spain and France can retain their market standing once competitive evidence replaces speculation.