The report ranks Switzerland highest when team strength is assessed through a blend of the ranking and the Elo system. Canada, Mexico, Czechia, Qatar, South Korea, Egypt and Germany are also listed among the teams to gain from the draw structure.
That advantage can be difficult to spot by looking only at the final groups. The report separates format-driven benefits from the specific opponents selected, asking how often each team could have received a tougher outcome across repeated simulations.
The clearest structural case is Canada. The three hosts - Canada, Mexico and the United States - were placed in Pot 1, regardless of their ranking position.
The report says Canada would otherwise have been in Pot 3, making its Pot 1 status a major boost before the draw began. The same system also left some higher-ranked qualifiers in Pot 4 because they had not qualified when the pots were set.
That is a format advantage rather than evidence that Canada received an unusually easy group. It shows how hosting can influence a team’s route beyond home support and familiar conditions.
Turkey and Norway emerge as the most disadvantaged teams in the report. The contrast between ranking systems helps explain why. The United States stood 13th in the ranking but 28th in Elo, while Norway was 26th in ’s ranking and 11th in Elo.
Turkey is described as the strongest team in Pot 4, creating a difficult matchup for teams placed above it. Senegal and France are among those paired with Norway, while the United States and Australia faced Turkey.
The next test will come when the groups are played. Switzerland’s draw advantage will matter only if it translates into progression, while Canada’s host-assisted route will face its first competitive examination on the pitch.