The warning signs are clear. Uruguay have not won since October, when they beat Uzbekistan, and their recent victories also include the Dominican Republic. Before that run, their previous win came last September.
A 1-1 draw with England showed Uruguay can compete with strong opposition, but repeated draws offer limited value when qualification is at stake. The central issue is invention: the team no longer has the established attacking certainty once provided by Luis Suárez, Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlán.
Uruguay still possess elite midfield quality through Federico Valverde, whose range and intensity can change the rhythm of a match. But the burden cannot rest on one player, particularly with Manuel Ugarte struggling for consistency at Manchester United.
Spain’s expected control makes Uruguay’s first objective clear: remain compact, win second balls and create more than isolated counter-attacks. If Spain dictate possession, Bielsa’s side may need an unusually efficient performance from limited chances.
The prevailing outlook points towards a Spain result and a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals identified as a relevant market angle. That reflects Uruguay’s recent lack of cutting edge rather than a lack of competitive spirit.
The next storyline is whether Bielsa changes the attacking structure or trusts Núñez to lead the line. Against Spain, Uruguay need both points and a scorer.