The case for Arsenal is simple.
That matters because title races are often shaped before spring. Teams that know their patterns usually start faster, rotate better and recover more cleanly from bad results. Arsenal already look like a side with those habits in place.
The biggest threat still looks like Manchester City, but the champions are not chasing the same version of City as before. Enzo Maresca is now leading the club, and another report says the early spotlight will fall quickly with Arsenal and City meeting in the Community Shield. City have elite talent, but a new managerial cycle changes the rhythm.
Elsewhere, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are all either under new management or still early in a rebuild. United may be slightly further along in that process with Michael Carrick having already spent time in charge, but Arsenal still appear the most settled of the major contenders.
A huge subplot is the schedule. Nine English clubs are in Europe:
That load could help clubs with clearer domestic calendars, notably Chelsea, Newcastle United and Tottenham.
At the other end, promoted Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City give the division fresh storylines. Coventry’s return after 25 years away stands out, while all three will hope momentum travels upward with them.
The next clue comes fast. If Arsenal open with the same authority they showed last season, the title conversation may start with a familiar conclusion: everyone else is trying to catch Arsenal.