The key point is control. Arsenal do not need to scoreboard-watch if they beat Burnley at home on 18 May and then win at Crystal Palace on the final day.
City’s job is tougher in one sense:
There is, however, one important cushion in City’s favour. If the teams finish level on points, goal difference is decisive before goals scored, and City currently hold a seven-goal edge. That margin could matter if the race comes down to arithmetic rather than outright results.
Below the title fight, the Champions League picture remains crowded. The top five will qualify, which changes the tone of the run-in for clubs chasing late-season momentum.
A few moving parts could still reshape the map:
That leaves a table where finishing positions still carry huge value well beyond the title race.
At the foot of the table, Wolves and Burnley are already down. The final relegation place has been narrowed to Tottenham or West Ham, giving both clubs a brutally simple target over the closing fixtures.
Promotion is cleaner:
The next few days should bring clarity everywhere. Arsenal know exactly what is required, City know their margin for error is basically gone, and the fight for Europe, survival and promotion still has enough twists left to make the final stretch decisive.