Shearer’s case is simple: form, trust and timing.
“I think Rogers will be one of the first names on the team sheet,” Shearer added, pointing to “who’s done well” and “who’s got a hold of the shirt to start with it.” That matters in tournament football. Managers often talk about reputation, but they usually lean toward rhythm.
Reports suggest Morgan Rogers has become a serious favourite because he offers direct running, power and a willingness to play on the turn. He also arrives with strong momentum after a productive season, and that counts for plenty when places are tight.
If Jude Bellingham were left out, it would still be a huge call. He remains one of the biggest names in the squad and a player built for major occasions. But tournament openers are not always about status; they are about balance.
That is why this feels less like a snub and more like a game-specific decision.
By leaving out other creative options, Tuchel appears to have narrowed the fight for that position. That has turned the spotlight directly onto Rogers, Bellingham and Eberechi Eze.
Against a disciplined Croatia side, England may want a player who can carry the ball through traffic and attack space early. Right now, Rogers seems to fit that brief.
The next clue will likely come in camp and the warm-up games against New Zealand and Costa Rica. If Rogers keeps his grip on the role there, Shearer’s prediction may soon look less like a hot take and more like the shape of England’s opening night.