A draw would preserve Scotland’s position in the third-place standings and keep their hopes of reaching the last 32 intact.
An Iraq victory could also work, but only if it is achieved by no more than two goals. A wider win would lift Iraq above Scotland and remove Clarke’s side from the qualification picture.
That makes the match unusually straightforward for Scottish supporters: a stalemate is the result to follow, while an Iraq win carries an immediate goal-difference threat.
Scotland’s predicament was not caused by one isolated result. Several outcomes combined to push them towards elimination.
Those results reduced Scotland’s advantage in the best third-placed table and left them waiting for help from another group.
Clarke had already warned that Scotland were probably heading home. The latest permutations have strengthened that concern, with their tournament future now resting less on their own performance and more on the scoreline in Senegal’s meeting with Iraq.
Senegal versus Iraq takes place on Friday 26 June, with kick-off at 20:00 BST. The game is the next major storyline in Scotland’s campaign and will determine whether their first appearance in the knockout stage of a major finals remains possible.
A draw would give Scotland the clearest lift. A narrow Iraq victory would keep the door open, but a three-goal win or wider would end their hopes.