The biggest structural change is the tournament itself.
That matters because betting volume usually follows opportunity. A longer tournament creates more markets, more knockout drama and more chances for casual fans to get involved. Reports suggest legal online sportsbooks alone could handle about $3.1bn, with prediction markets potentially adding another $2.4bn.
The host geography may be just as important as the format.
The report points to $1.8bn legally wagered by Americans on the 2022 World Cup, so the projected leap is substantial. Better kick-off times, combined with broader state-by-state access to mobile wagering, appear to be the key drivers.
There is also a football angle inside the business story. If the United States men's team makes a strong run, betting interest would likely spike deeper into the tournament. Home-soil attention, wall-to-wall coverage and knockout-stage momentum can turn a broad event into a national one very quickly.
A survey cited in the report adds to that picture, saying 58% of Americans plan some form of World Cup bet, while roughly one in three of those expects to spend at least $250.
The next storyline to watch is whether that projected $5bn holds once markets open at full scale - and whether the host-nation buzz turns the 2026 World Cup into the biggest betting event football has ever seen in the US.